US-Iran Peace Agreement Prompts Stock Rally, Leaves Some Investors Skeptical and Questions on Speed of Resuming Oil Production
The strongest reaction was seen in energy markets. U.S. crude oil futures for July delivery were down 4.77% to $80.83 per barrel by 8:27 p.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, for August delivery traded about 4% lower to $83.77 per barrel. Asian equities surged. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 5.1%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 3.6%, and the broader Topix advanced 2.6%… The U.S. dollar index weakened 0.32% to 99.483, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 4.423%, suggesting that investors were dialing back inflation concerns on easing energy prices. “The most immediate implication is a repricing of the inflation risk premium that markets have been carrying since the Strait closed,” said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs…UPDATE: “A US official is rejecting Iran’s assertion that it will receive billions of dollars in frozen funds before a planned 60-day negotiating period begins following Friday’s signing of an agreement,” reports CNN:
Besides safe-haven Treasurys, gold also rose. “Gold is the interesting outlier here,” Leung said. “In a clean risk-on trade, gold should be selling off as the geopolitical premium unwinds, but it is holding bid around $4,300, which tells you the market is not fully trusting the deal yet.” Spot gold prices were up almost 2% at $4,302.19 per ounce. That skepticism reflects lingering uncertainty around the agreement, which remains unsigned and subject to implementation risks. [Josh Gilbert, lead Asia Pacific analyst at trading platform eToro] cautioned that “the deal isn’t actually signed until June 19th, the details are still thin, and this conflict has shown more than once that headlines can turn on a dime.”
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia also stressed that the oil outlook hinges on how quickly shipping and production can normalize. Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability research at CBA, expects Brent to fall to around $80 a barrel by year-end, assuming the Strait remains open and exports recover. However, he warned that damage to refining infrastructure, the presence of sea mines and uncertainty over tanker traffic could slow the return to normal operations. Even so, he said markets are likely to take comfort from the prospect that oil flows need only recover to around 60%-70% of pre-war levels to restore expectations of a global supply surplus.
For investors, the biggest implication will likely be what cheaper energy means for inflation and central banks. Lower oil prices ease pressure on households and businesses while reducing the risk of a broader inflation resurgence just as major central banks enter a busy week of policy meetings.
The pushback came after Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the next phase of talks would depend on Washington first fulfilling several obligations, including releasing Iranian funds frozen abroad. The differing accounts underscore a significant gap between how the United States and Iran are describing what must happen before the next round of negotiations can move forward.
If I were a betting man…
I’d bet that nothing gets signed Friday. What the US administration is claiming is in the deal looks far different than what Iran states is in the deal.
Also, does anyone else remember Trump making up some BS about Iran promising some really nice gift to him? I think the odds are high Trump screws this up, even if the negotiators land on agreeable common terms between now and Friday.
Trump vs Iran.
What deal
Netanyahu is trying to drag America
The problem with that is it requires boots on the ground and it almost certainly will require a draft. Iran is too large and American birth rates are too low to supply enough cannon fodder through a volunteer army. The Republican party has not consolidated its power enough and it hasn’t got enough voter suppression in place yet that they can just do what Russia does and force people to the front lines.
I suspect Israel will try to do a few more strikes and get a few more hand slaps from the Trump administration. As long as I ran doesn’t take the bait and so far they haven’t been then they’ve won. They now have control of the strait of Hormuz and with it they can shut down 20% of the global economy anytime they want. That’s way more valuable than a nuclear weapon.
The great negotiator has basically given Iran everything and got nothing. All this because his base desperately needed him to show up a black man…
Meanwhile inflation is 4.2% and even with the War ending it’s going to go up more. Despite that Trump is still pulling in 37%.
Glorious success!